The rapid increase in oil production in the United States is a game-changing development for the global oil market, and has fueled speculation in multiple directions. Yet, the implications of the so-called “energy transition” on U.S. policies in the Middle East are often overestimated. The geopolitical effects of the shale oil revolution are more likely to be indirect, to the extent that they will boost U.S. economic confidence and impact the global oil market. U.S. engagement in the Middle East and North Africa region, as well as the reactions it triggers, have little to do with oil, and will therefore continue to be determined by larger security interests.
